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romney up by 4 points in the pew poll. in the swing states, mr. romney leading in colorado by 4. mr. obama leading in pennsylvania by 2, the right poll showing a tie in nevada. the president up in new hampshire by 6 points. and really the one poll we waited on all day, the one poll that might matter more than any other single piece of data, the one piece we got today, president obama holding on to a 4-point lead in ohio. let's poll this one out. this is a cnn number from this afternoon. barack obama with an edge of 4 points in ohio, which is just outside the margin of error. it's far less than the 9-point leads in the survey not long ago. i should say to democrats and obama supporters, i'm sorry if i unleashed those numbers on you with a mature content warning label. but my friend e.j. dionne will be with us later. he says, i was talking with an old friend who was one of the nonpartisan polling outfits. we were discussing the large shifts in some of the polls on the presidential election and the feedback he receives whenever he puts out new numbers that make one side or the other
romney up by 4 points in the pew poll. in the swing states, mr. romney leading in colorado by 4. mr. obama leading in pennsylvania by 2, the right poll showing a tie in nevada. the president up in new hampshire by 6 points. and really the one poll we waited on all day, the one poll that might matter more than any other single piece of data, the one piece we got today, president obama holding on to a 4-point lead in ohio. let's poll this one out. this is a cnn number from this afternoon. barack...
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Oct 10, 2012
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the gallup poll, for instance, has romney doing five points better. other polls have that a little smaller. so it seems like obama would even today win an election if everyone registered to vote turned out or certainly all adults. but based on the republican enthusiasm advantage and some democrats, i think, feeling a little disupon dent after the president's performance in denver last week, that alone might be enough to push romney over the top. >> the special way that you sort of distill the candidate's chances at 538, your now cast factors in not just polling but also economic data and other measures that you think give you a percentage chance that one of the two candidates will win the election. what's the percentage chance you have for each of the candidates and has that changed less than the national polls changed? >> the percentage is a 70/30 advantage for obama. which, by the way, if you go to vegas or offshore versions of vegas, you can bet at about those odds. obama is a 70% favorite. but my site had obama as an 85% favorite before the debate
the gallup poll, for instance, has romney doing five points better. other polls have that a little smaller. so it seems like obama would even today win an election if everyone registered to vote turned out or certainly all adults. but based on the republican enthusiasm advantage and some democrats, i think, feeling a little disupon dent after the president's performance in denver last week, that alone might be enough to push romney over the top. >> the special way that you sort of distill...
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Oct 8, 2012
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the initial wave of state polls showed romney doing pretty well in the battleground states. in the rasmussen polls over the last two days, obama is doing better. that's consistent with the trend i talked about earlier. the question is whether obama gets an outsized bounce in states like ohio, nevada and iowa where he was doing better than nationally. if you look at all of the national polls conducted since the first debate, what you see is about a three point gain for romney. if that holds and if that uniformly filtering down to the battleground states, romney would still trail in iowa, ohio and alabama and obama would have a slight advantage ♪ electoral college. >> continuing our theme of what really matters, let's talk about the polls. obviously, polls don't vote. but do they sway the electorate? do they see one person as leading or gaining and some people decide to change their vote? is there some science on do polls actually shape the election itself? >> i don't think there's very much evidence that polls shift the election. if they did, i think we would see, you know,
the initial wave of state polls showed romney doing pretty well in the battleground states. in the rasmussen polls over the last two days, obama is doing better. that's consistent with the trend i talked about earlier. the question is whether obama gets an outsized bounce in states like ohio, nevada and iowa where he was doing better than nationally. if you look at all of the national polls conducted since the first debate, what you see is about a three point gain for romney. if that holds and...
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Oct 9, 2012
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case in point, this afternoon's gallup poll showing the president leading mitt romney 49% to 46% among registered voters. among likely voters it's romney up by two leading the president 49% to 47%. folks, this is a tight race as both candidates are keenly aware. romney began in iowa, one of the states that could prove crucial to his hopes for a path to 270 electoral votes. and he was introduced by his son, josh, who had an interesting take on romney's debate preparation. >> we'd say the same lie over and over and my dad learned then not to believe it. so while we didn't go to any of the formal debate preparation, we did the real hard stuff. as a father, he learned how to debate an obstinate child. >> kicking it off by suggesting the president is an obstinate child. that's great, mr. romney. what do you have for sale? >> i am going to put a cap on regulation and any new major regulation will have to be approved by congress. i'm not letting the politicians off the hook. >> absolutely, he's not letting politicians off the hook, just wall street, k street, polluters, abusers, everyone else
case in point, this afternoon's gallup poll showing the president leading mitt romney 49% to 46% among registered voters. among likely voters it's romney up by two leading the president 49% to 47%. folks, this is a tight race as both candidates are keenly aware. romney began in iowa, one of the states that could prove crucial to his hopes for a path to 270 electoral votes. and he was introduced by his son, josh, who had an interesting take on romney's debate preparation. >> we'd say the...
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we saw the polls, romney closing in states like michigan and wisconsin. do you think he could take ohio? >> ohioans will have a flashback or a total recall, if you will, when they think about what the president has done, from rescuing the auto industry to standing up for women. they know, in fact, who to vote for. you know, the president won in 2008 ohio by 51%, and i believe that ohioans are going to recall who was actually in their corner for the last 3 1/2 years, and that is president obama. once they get over, thomas, the dazzle of the debate. we need to put that behind us and we're going to move forward. it is the president that is pushing policies that will allow the middle class and poor folks to thrive, to get over. >> romney has reinvested in the state of ohio with ads specifically targeted to ohioans. take a look at this. >> the question ohio families are asking is who can bring back the jobs? under president obama, we've lost over 500,000 manufacturing jobs. >> so, "the new york times" reporting today, senator, that the romney camp going after
we saw the polls, romney closing in states like michigan and wisconsin. do you think he could take ohio? >> ohioans will have a flashback or a total recall, if you will, when they think about what the president has done, from rescuing the auto industry to standing up for women. they know, in fact, who to vote for. you know, the president won in 2008 ohio by 51%, and i believe that ohioans are going to recall who was actually in their corner for the last 3 1/2 years, and that is president...
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we saw the pugh poll that shows romney up a great bit. now the real news begins, the state by state by state polls. >> four weeks away. can you believe it. >> we have a few to report on this morning. >> the election is coming. the fight for battleground states, less than four weeks until election day in ohio where there are 18 electoral votes up for grabs. a new cnn poll conducted after the debate shows the president leading by four points, 51-47. romney has gained four points there in just over a week. in new hampshire a new wmur granite state poll showses in last nine day he's whittled the 15-point lead down to 6 points. national polls has romney edging ahead of barack obama for the first time this year. the question is, is this what happens naturally, or was this spurred by the debate? >> it doesn't happen naturally. it happens after an earthquake. >> really? >> there was a political earthquake last week, the likes of which i've never seen in american politics, where a shift happened that dramatically in one night. donny, you've seen t
we saw the pugh poll that shows romney up a great bit. now the real news begins, the state by state by state polls. >> four weeks away. can you believe it. >> we have a few to report on this morning. >> the election is coming. the fight for battleground states, less than four weeks until election day in ohio where there are 18 electoral votes up for grabs. a new cnn poll conducted after the debate shows the president leading by four points, 51-47. romney has gained four points...
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Oct 12, 2012
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oh, boy. >> more campaign news in a new poll found only 47% of voters find mitt romney to be trustworthy. then romney is like, i hope it's not the same 47% that i don't care >>> we're back with joe biden's big night setting the social media on fire. facebook claims that biden got 36% more mentions than ryan. and check out the top three rise in google searches. the top search was biden. next was the word focornflating and then the word malarkey. >> it's never been done before. >> it's been done a couple times. >> jack kennedy lowered -- >> oh, now you're jack kennedy? >> you're no jack kennedy moment, lloyd benson would be proud. meantime, twitter was ablazed with celebrity involvement. bill maher wrote, hello, 911, there's an old child beating on my tv. and post debate results just in. ryan now at 6% body fat, 94% water. the "politicsnation" facebook crowd was plugged in, too. marilynn said, thank god for joe's crisp vision he painted on behalf of the middle class. janet says her new favorite word is malarkey and roger was happy. the good old 47 was brought back to life. we want to hear
oh, boy. >> more campaign news in a new poll found only 47% of voters find mitt romney to be trustworthy. then romney is like, i hope it's not the same 47% that i don't care >>> we're back with joe biden's big night setting the social media on fire. facebook claims that biden got 36% more mentions than ryan. and check out the top three rise in google searches. the top search was biden. next was the word focornflating and then the word malarkey. >> it's never been done...
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Oct 13, 2012
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putting mitt romney within striking distance of the president. now, he may still, mitt romney may still have a challenge, a hurdle to clear with some undecided voters here. and that's surrounding this auto bailout. the president of course supported that bailout, pushed it through. the president and his campaign says that bailout saved hundreds of thousands of jobs not just in detroit but here in ohio and elsewhere around the country as well. we'll have to see whether governor romney will be able to close the deal with some undecided voters. potential challenge notwithstanding, paul ryan made the case again here today why he believes the country needs to make a change in the white house. >> right now people in the top two tax brackets, they can shelter a lot of their income from taxation by putting them in various tax loopholes. take away those tax shelters and more of their income is subject to taxation. so the base of income that is being taxed is bigger and broader. that means we can lower tax rates for everybody. >> reporter: now still a busy
putting mitt romney within striking distance of the president. now, he may still, mitt romney may still have a challenge, a hurdle to clear with some undecided voters here. and that's surrounding this auto bailout. the president of course supported that bailout, pushed it through. the president and his campaign says that bailout saved hundreds of thousands of jobs not just in detroit but here in ohio and elsewhere around the country as well. we'll have to see whether governor romney will be...